Manhattan, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

439
FXUS63 KTOP 100739
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
239 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms this morning and again tonight. Rainfall rates
  of 1-3 inches per hour could lead to flooding. A few strong to
  severe storms with gusty wind to 60 mph are possible as well.

- Lingering showers and thunderstorms possible through Tuesday,
  then dry and warmer to end the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Early this morning a complex of thunderstorms was moving across
northeast Kansas. It has had a history of producing wind 60-80
mph, but latest trends indicate it is becoming more elevated and
the strongest winds are likely not making it down to the
surface. Generally, around 40 mph wind and heavy rain can be
expected as this line moves through this morning. Occasional
showers and thunderstorms are possible through the day today as
we remain under the influence of a longwave trough to our west
and several mid-level waves ride through the mean flow aloft.
The main area of focus will be along and north of a warm front
that sets up across central and eastern Kansas. Models have
come in better agreement with the position of the front now that
they are resolving the morning complex of storms. The most
likely area for the front to reside later today is along the
I-35 corridor. More robust storms are expected to form along
the front as the nocturnal low-level jet strengthens. With
warm/moist advection continuing through the day PWATs well above
2 inches are likely. Strong thunderstorms with rain rates of
1-3 inches an hour are likely. An occasional wind gust around 60
mph is also possible in the strongest storms. A general one to
three inches of rain is expected across the area through Monday
morning, but higher amounts are possible in areas with training
storms. The Flood Watch remains in effect for the entire area
through Monday morning. Some lingering showers and storms are
possible through Tuesday as some weak mid/upper-level forcing
remains overhead. An upper-level ridge is favored to build back
in by the end of the week, leading to warmer temperatures once
again.



&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

A complex of storms is moving into north central Kansas at this
time and tracking east southeast at around 40 knots. It should
be near KMHK around 07z and KTOP/KFOE around 08z. While the
complex is expected to weaken as it moves to the east, some
gusty winds around 30 knots, heavy rain and frequent lightning
will all be possible. This round of thunderstorms should come to
an end around 15z. Additional thunderstorms are expected
overnight Sunday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday morning for KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-
KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-
KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-
KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...
DISCUSSION...Jones
AVIATION...Jones