Manhattan, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

821
FXUS63 KTOP 060805
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
305 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms south of I-70 through the
  early morning hours today (50-80%). Scattered showers and
  storms can be expected across the remaining area (30-50%)

- Isolated showers and storms will remain possible this
  afternoon across the area (20%). Some more organized storms
  could become strong, possibly producing gusty winds, small
  hail and brief heavy rain.

- Several rounds of rain return this evening through Sunday but
  a total washout is not expected as lots of dry time
  expected. Severe weather chances are low.

- Drier conditions build in next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Minimal changes to the overall synoptic pattern has occurred over the
past 24 hours as quasi-zonal flow persists over the central US,
positively-tilted troughing over the western US and weak southwest
flow extending from Baja California to the southern Plains. This
morning, another mid-level energy max embedded in the
aforementioned southwestern flow helped to spark convection
across the southern high Plains, resulting in a MCS that
continues to track along the KS/OK border. The progression of
this MCS has remained fairly parallel to the MUCAPE and theta-e
gradient set up over northern Oklahoma. To the north of the
MCS, stratiform showers have begun to overspread east-central
Kansas where PoPs will remain in the 50-80% range over the next
several hours. Heaviest rainfall amounts should stay south
across far southeastern Kansas, but rainfall totals south of
I-70 could be up to 0.50 inches. Additional showers/weak
t-storms have begun to develop even further north across north-
central Kansas as the mid-level perturbation continues to track
into eastern Kansas. For the remainder of the morning and into
the early afternoon hours, expect the widespread shower activity
from the MCS to move east, being replaced by slight chances for
an isolated shower/thunderstorm. Cannot rule out an outflow
boundary pushing north into the area from this morning`s MCS and
if this can happen, it could become a focal point for
convective development by the later afternoon hours. Given
elevated instabilities increasing into the 1000-1500 J/kg range
and 30-40 knots of bulk shear, cannot rule out a stronger
convective cell or two. That said, severe weather is not
expected, but could get some gusty winds, heavy rainfall and
possibly some small hail.


Better chances for rain and storms return this evening into Saturday
as our next shortwave ejects southeast off the WY range, sparking
convection across the high plains of western Kansas. Richer moisture
should not advect too far north into central KS ahead of this
wave given a stalled boundary across Oklahoma, so a similar
situation may play out with convection following the tightened
theta-e and instability gradient draped along the KS/OK border.
With northeastern Kansas remaining north of this gradient,
chances for severe weather will also likely stay south.
Precipitation chances decrease as we head into Saturday
afternoon with the main upper low shifting into Missouri. This
should yield a mostly dry Saturday afternoon and evening. By
Sunday, a digging trough in the northern Plains will help to
push a surface boundary through the area, stalling somewhere
across southeastern Kansas by Sunday afternoon. Increasing deep
shear and mid to upper 60 degree dewpoints south of the surface
boundary should result in decent instability by the afternoon.
This hints at the potential for strong to severe storm
development along the boundary Sunday afternoon and evening. The
main threats with storms at this time look to be damaging winds
and large hail. Additional chances for storms could come again
Monday afternoon across east-central and southeastern Kansas if
the boundary remains stalled, but better confidence in storms
remains south and east of the area.

Looking ahead to next week, an upper level ridge begins to deepen
across the central US that should help to usher in drier weather.
Will continue to monitor how quickly this may break down, but for
now, expect dry weather for much of next week before PoPs increase
by the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Over the next few hours, scattered shower and storm development
should increase over the TAF sites as a complex of storms tracks
east into southeastern Kansas. Better chances for storms stays
south of the terminals, but some isolated/scattered convection
developing north of the main complex could impact terminals
through the early portions of the TAF. MVFR and some high end
IFR stratus will accompany precipitation through the morning
hours today before lifting to VFR by the afternoon. Most areas
will remain dry during the later portion of the TAF, but some
isolated thunderstorm development may become possible over the
afternoon hours. Confidence is not overly high in timing and
coverage at each site, so opted to keep out at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Griesemer